Who Should Commanders Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 16% · NFC East chance 7%
Root for a Commanders win. Other games this week barely change their chances.
The Commanders are 1-2, with a 16% chance to make the playoffs and a 7% chance to win the NFC East. This game matters most:
- A Commanders win over the Colts raises their playoff chance to 20%. A loss drops it to 12%.
Commanders Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts at Commanders | Commanders | Medium | 12% → 20% | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Commanders Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Commanders Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Commanders’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Commanders Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Commanders fans root for in Week 4?
- Root for a Commanders win. Other games this week barely change their chances. A Commanders win over the Colts raises their playoff chance to 20%. A loss drops it to 12%.
- What are the Commanders’ playoff chances?
- 16% to make the playoffs and 7% to win the NFC East, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Commanders games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET