Who Should Ravens Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 71% · AFC North chance 38%
Besides a Ravens win, root for the Bills over the Patriots.
The Ravens are 2-1, with a 71% chance to make the playoffs and a 38% chance to win the AFC North. Most games this week barely change their chances. These two matter most:
- A Ravens win over the Titans raises their playoff chance to 74%. A loss drops it to 60%.
- A Bills win over the Patriots leaves the Ravens’ playoff chance at 71%. A Patriots win drops it to 70%.
Ravens Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans at Ravens | Ravens | High | 60% → 74% | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Bills | Low | 70% → 71% | A Bills win lowers New England’s playoff chance by 19 points. |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Ravens Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Ravens Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Ravens’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Ravens Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Ravens fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Ravens win, root for the Bills over the Patriots. A Ravens win over the Titans raises their playoff chance to 74%. A loss drops it to 60%. A Bills win over the Patriots leaves the Ravens’ playoff chance at 71%. A Patriots win drops it to 70%.
- What are the Ravens’ playoff chances?
- 71% to make the playoffs and 38% to win the AFC North, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Ravens games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET