Who Should Bills Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 91% · AFC East chance 77%
Root for a Bills win. Other games this week barely change their chances.
The Bills are 3-0, with a 91% chance to make the playoffs and a 77% chance to win the AFC East. This game matters most:
- A Bills win over the Patriots raises their playoff chance to 95%. A loss drops it to 86%.
Bills Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Bills | Bills | High | 86% → 95% | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Bills Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Bills Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Bills’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Bills Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Bills fans root for in Week 4?
- Root for a Bills win. Other games this week barely change their chances. A Bills win over the Patriots raises their playoff chance to 95%. A loss drops it to 86%.
- What are the Bills’ playoff chances?
- 91% to make the playoffs and 77% to win the AFC East, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Bills games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET