Who Should Cowboys Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 37% · NFC East chance 21%
Besides a Cowboys win, root for the Cardinals over the Giants and the Jets over the Bears.
The Cowboys are 1-2, with a 37% chance to make the playoffs and a 21% chance to win the NFC East. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Cowboys win over the Texans raises their playoff chance to 44%. A loss drops it to 32%.
- A Cardinals win over the Giants raises the Cowboys’ playoff chance to 39%. A Giants win leaves it at 37%.
- A Jets win over the Bears raises the Cowboys’ playoff chance to 38%. A Bears win leaves it at 37%.
Cowboys Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys at Texans | Cowboys | High | 32% → 44% | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Cardinals | Low | 37% → 39% | A Cardinals win lowers the Giants’ playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Jets at Bears | Jets | Low | 37% → 38% | A Jets win lowers Chicago’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Cowboys Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Cowboys Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Cowboys’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Cowboys Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Cowboys fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Cowboys win, root for the Cardinals over the Giants and the Jets over the Bears. A Cowboys win over the Texans raises their playoff chance to 44%. A loss drops it to 32%. A Cardinals win over the Giants raises the Cowboys’ playoff chance to 39%. A Giants win leaves it at 37%. A Jets win over the Bears raises the Cowboys’ playoff chance to 38%. A Bears win leaves it at 37%.
- What are the Cowboys’ playoff chances?
- 37% to make the playoffs and 21% to win the NFC East, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Cowboys games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET