Who Should Vikings Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 78% · NFC North chance 41%
Besides a Vikings win, root for the Jets over the Bears and the Buccaneers over the Packers.
The Vikings are 3-0, with a 78% chance to make the playoffs and a 41% chance to win the NFC North. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Vikings win over the Dolphins raises their playoff chance to 80%. A loss drops it to 70%.
- A Jets win over the Bears raises the Vikings’ playoff chance to 79%. A Bears win drops it to 77%.
- A Buccaneers win over the Packers leaves the Vikings’ playoff chance at 78%. A Packers win drops it to 77%.
Vikings Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins at Vikings | Vikings | High | 70% → 80% | — |
| Jets at Bears | Jets | Low | 77% → 79% | A Jets win lowers Chicago’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Low | 77% → 78% | A Buccaneers win lowers Green Bay’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Vikings Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Vikings Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Vikings’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Vikings Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Vikings fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Vikings win, root for the Jets over the Bears and the Buccaneers over the Packers. A Vikings win over the Dolphins raises their playoff chance to 80%. A loss drops it to 70%. A Jets win over the Bears raises the Vikings’ playoff chance to 79%. A Bears win drops it to 77%. A Buccaneers win over the Packers leaves the Vikings’ playoff chance at 78%. A Packers win drops it to 77%.
- What are the Vikings’ playoff chances?
- 78% to make the playoffs and 41% to win the NFC North, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Vikings games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET