Who Should Patriots Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 50% · AFC East chance 20%
Besides a Patriots win, root for the 49ers over the Broncos and the Titans over the Ravens.
The Patriots are 1-2, with a 50% chance to make the playoffs and a 20% chance to win the AFC East. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Patriots win over the Bills raises their playoff chance to 62%. A loss drops it to 43%.
- A 49ers win over the Broncos leaves the Patriots’ playoff chance at 50%. A Broncos win drops it to 49%.
- A Titans win over the Ravens raises the Patriots’ playoff chance to 51%. A Ravens win leaves it at 50%.
Patriots Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Bills | Patriots | High | 43% → 62% | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | 49ers | Low | 49% → 50% | A 49ers win lowers Denver’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Titans at Ravens | Titans | Low | 50% → 51% | A Titans win lowers Baltimore’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Jets at Bears | Bears | Low | 49% → 50% | A Bears win lowers the Jets’ playoff chance by 8 points. |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Patriots Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Patriots Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Patriots’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Patriots Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Patriots fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Patriots win, root for the 49ers over the Broncos and the Titans over the Ravens. A Patriots win over the Bills raises their playoff chance to 62%. A loss drops it to 43%. A 49ers win over the Broncos leaves the Patriots’ playoff chance at 50%. A Broncos win drops it to 49%. A Titans win over the Ravens raises the Patriots’ playoff chance to 51%. A Ravens win leaves it at 50%.
- What are the Patriots’ playoff chances?
- 50% to make the playoffs and 20% to win the AFC East, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Patriots games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET