Who Should Lions Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 73% · NFC North chance 37%
Besides a Lions win, root for the Jets over the Bears and the Chargers over the Seahawks.
The Lions are 2-1, with a 73% chance to make the playoffs and a 37% chance to win the NFC North. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Lions win over the Panthers raises their playoff chance to 79%. A loss drops it to 66%.
- A Jets win over the Bears raises the Lions’ playoff chance to 74%. A Bears win leaves it at 73%.
- A Chargers win over the Seahawks raises the Lions’ playoff chance to 74%. A Seahawks win leaves it at 73%.
Lions Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at Panthers | Lions | High | 66% → 79% | — |
| Jets at Bears | Jets | Low | 73% → 74% | A Jets win lowers Chicago’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Chargers | Low | 73% → 74% | A Chargers win lowers Seattle’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Lions Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Lions Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Lions’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Lions Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Lions fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Lions win, root for the Jets over the Bears and the Chargers over the Seahawks. A Lions win over the Panthers raises their playoff chance to 79%. A loss drops it to 66%. A Jets win over the Bears raises the Lions’ playoff chance to 74%. A Bears win leaves it at 73%. A Chargers win over the Seahawks raises the Lions’ playoff chance to 74%. A Seahawks win leaves it at 73%.
- What are the Lions’ playoff chances?
- 73% to make the playoffs and 37% to win the NFC North, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Lions games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET