Who Should 49ers Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 76% · NFC West chance 46%
Besides a 49ers win, root for the Chargers over the Seahawks and the Jets over the Bears.
The 49ers are 3-0, with a 76% chance to make the playoffs and a 46% chance to win the NFC West. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A 49ers win over the Broncos raises their playoff chance to 81%. A loss drops it to 71%.
- A Chargers win over the Seahawks raises the 49ers’ playoff chance to 77%. A Seahawks win leaves it at 76%.
- A Jets win over the Bears raises the 49ers’ playoff chance to 77%. A Bears win leaves it at 76%.
49ers Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos at 49ers | 49ers | High | 71% → 81% | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Chargers | Low | 76% → 77% | A Chargers win lowers Seattle’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Jets at Bears | Jets | Low | 76% → 77% | A Jets win lowers Chicago’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Cowboys at Texans | Texans | Low | 76% → 77% | A Texans win lowers Dallas’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
49ers Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How 49ers Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the 49ers’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
49ers Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should 49ers fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a 49ers win, root for the Chargers over the Seahawks and the Jets over the Bears. A 49ers win over the Broncos raises their playoff chance to 81%. A loss drops it to 71%. A Chargers win over the Seahawks raises the 49ers’ playoff chance to 77%. A Seahawks win leaves it at 76%. A Jets win over the Bears raises the 49ers’ playoff chance to 77%. A Bears win leaves it at 76%.
- What are the 49ers’ playoff chances?
- 76% to make the playoffs and 46% to win the NFC West, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which 49ers games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET