Who Should Chiefs Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 81% · AFC West chance 51%
Besides a Chiefs win, root for the 49ers over the Broncos.
The Chiefs are 3-0, with an 81% chance to make the playoffs and a 51% chance to win the AFC West. Most games this week barely change their chances. These two matter most:
- A Chiefs win over the Raiders raises their playoff chance to 88%. A loss drops it to 74%.
- A 49ers win over the Broncos raises the Chiefs’ playoff chance to 82%. A Broncos win leaves it at 81%.
Chiefs Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs at Raiders | Chiefs | High | 74% → 88% | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | 49ers | Low | 81% → 82% | A 49ers win lowers Denver’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Chiefs Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Chiefs Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Chiefs’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Chiefs Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Chiefs fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Chiefs win, root for the 49ers over the Broncos. A Chiefs win over the Raiders raises their playoff chance to 88%. A loss drops it to 74%. A 49ers win over the Broncos raises the Chiefs’ playoff chance to 82%. A Broncos win leaves it at 81%.
- What are the Chiefs’ playoff chances?
- 81% to make the playoffs and 51% to win the AFC West, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Chiefs games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET