Who Should Colts Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 34% · AFC South chance 24%
Besides a Colts win, root for the Cowboys over the Texans and the Bengals over the Jaguars.
The Colts are 1-2, with a 34% chance to make the playoffs and a 24% chance to win the AFC South. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Colts win over the Commanders raises their playoff chance to 39%. A loss drops it to 27%.
- A Cowboys win over the Texans raises the Colts’ playoff chance to 35%. A Texans win drops it to 33%.
- A Bengals win over the Jaguars raises the Colts’ playoff chance to 35%. A Jaguars win drops it to 33%.
Colts Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts at Commanders | Colts | High | 27% → 39% | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Cowboys | Low | 33% → 35% | A Cowboys win lowers Houston’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Bengals | Low | 33% → 35% | A Bengals win lowers Jacksonville’s playoff chance by 15 points. |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Colts Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Colts Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Colts’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Colts Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Colts fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Colts win, root for the Cowboys over the Texans and the Bengals over the Jaguars. A Colts win over the Commanders raises their playoff chance to 39%. A loss drops it to 27%. A Cowboys win over the Texans raises the Colts’ playoff chance to 35%. A Texans win drops it to 33%. A Bengals win over the Jaguars raises the Colts’ playoff chance to 35%. A Jaguars win drops it to 33%.
- What are the Colts’ playoff chances?
- 34% to make the playoffs and 24% to win the AFC South, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Colts games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET