Who Should Falcons Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 22% · NFC South chance 18%
Besides a Falcons win, root for the Lions over the Panthers and the Packers over the Buccaneers.
The Falcons are 1-2, with a 22% chance to make the playoffs and an 18% chance to win the NFC South. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Falcons win over the Saints raises their playoff chance to 31%. A loss drops it to 15%.
- A Lions win over the Panthers leaves the Falcons’ playoff chance at 22%. A Panthers win drops it to 21%.
- A Packers win over the Buccaneers leaves the Falcons’ playoff chance at 22%. A Buccaneers win drops it to 21%.
Falcons Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Saints | Falcons | High | 15% → 31% | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Lions | Low | 21% → 22% | A Lions win lowers Carolina’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers | Low | 21% → 22% | A Packers win lowers Tampa Bay’s playoff chance by 10 points. |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Falcons Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Falcons Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Falcons’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Falcons Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Falcons fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Falcons win, root for the Lions over the Panthers and the Packers over the Buccaneers. A Falcons win over the Saints raises their playoff chance to 31%. A loss drops it to 15%. A Lions win over the Panthers leaves the Falcons’ playoff chance at 22%. A Panthers win drops it to 21%. A Packers win over the Buccaneers leaves the Falcons’ playoff chance at 22%. A Buccaneers win drops it to 21%.
- What are the Falcons’ playoff chances?
- 22% to make the playoffs and 18% to win the NFC South, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Falcons games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET