Who Should Texans Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 30% · AFC South chance 20%
Besides a Texans win, root for the Bengals over the Jaguars and the Commanders over the Colts.
The Texans are 0-3, with a 30% chance to make the playoffs and a 20% chance to win the AFC South. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Texans win over the Cowboys raises their playoff chance to 35%. A loss drops it to 23%.
- A Bengals win over the Jaguars raises the Texans’ playoff chance to 31%. A Jaguars win drops it to 29%.
- A Commanders win over the Colts raises the Texans’ playoff chance to 31%. A Colts win drops it to 29%.
Texans Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys at Texans | Texans | High | 23% → 35% | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Bengals | Low | 29% → 31% | A Bengals win lowers Jacksonville’s playoff chance by 15 points. |
| Colts at Commanders | Commanders | Low | 29% → 31% | A Commanders win lowers Indianapolis’s playoff chance by 12 points. |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Texans Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Texans Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Texans’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Texans Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Texans fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Texans win, root for the Bengals over the Jaguars and the Commanders over the Colts. A Texans win over the Cowboys raises their playoff chance to 35%. A loss drops it to 23%. A Bengals win over the Jaguars raises the Texans’ playoff chance to 31%. A Jaguars win drops it to 29%. A Commanders win over the Colts raises the Texans’ playoff chance to 31%. A Colts win drops it to 29%.
- What are the Texans’ playoff chances?
- 30% to make the playoffs and 20% to win the AFC South, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Texans games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET