Who Should Packers Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 28% · NFC North chance 6%
Besides a Packers win, root for the Dolphins over the Vikings and the Jets over the Bears.
The Packers are 1-2, with a 28% chance to make the playoffs and a 6% chance to win the NFC North. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Packers win over the Buccaneers raises their playoff chance to 34%. A loss drops it to 20%.
- A Dolphins win over the Vikings raises the Packers’ playoff chance to 29%. A Vikings win drops it to 27%.
- A Jets win over the Bears raises the Packers’ playoff chance to 29%. A Bears win drops it to 27%.
Packers Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers | High | 20% → 34% | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Dolphins | Low | 27% → 29% | A Dolphins win lowers Minnesota’s playoff chance by 10 points. |
| Jets at Bears | Jets | Low | 27% → 29% | A Jets win lowers Chicago’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Chargers | Low | 27% → 28% | A Chargers win lowers Seattle’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Cardinals at Giants | Cardinals | Low | 27% → 28% | A Cardinals win lowers the Giants’ playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Cowboys at Texans | Texans | Low | 27% → 28% | A Texans win lowers Dallas’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Packers Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Packers Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Packers’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Packers Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Packers fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Packers win, root for the Dolphins over the Vikings and the Jets over the Bears. A Packers win over the Buccaneers raises their playoff chance to 34%. A loss drops it to 20%. A Dolphins win over the Vikings raises the Packers’ playoff chance to 29%. A Vikings win drops it to 27%. A Jets win over the Bears raises the Packers’ playoff chance to 29%. A Bears win drops it to 27%.
- What are the Packers’ playoff chances?
- 28% to make the playoffs and 6% to win the NFC North, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Packers games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET