Who Should Broncos Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 70% · AFC West chance 33%
Besides a Broncos win, root for the Seahawks over the Chargers and the Bills over the Patriots.
The Broncos are 2-1, with a 70% chance to make the playoffs and a 33% chance to win the AFC West. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Broncos win over the 49ers raises their playoff chance to 77%. A loss drops it to 66%.
- A Seahawks win over the Chargers raises the Broncos’ playoff chance to 71%. A Chargers win leaves it at 70%.
- A Bills win over the Patriots raises the Broncos’ playoff chance to 71%. A Patriots win leaves it at 70%.
Broncos Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos at 49ers | Broncos | High | 66% → 77% | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Seahawks | Low | 70% → 71% | A Seahawks win lowers the Chargers’ playoff chance by 9 points. |
| Patriots at Bills | Bills | Low | 70% → 71% | A Bills win lowers New England’s playoff chance by 19 points. |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Broncos Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Broncos Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Broncos’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Broncos Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Broncos fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Broncos win, root for the Seahawks over the Chargers and the Bills over the Patriots. A Broncos win over the 49ers raises their playoff chance to 77%. A loss drops it to 66%. A Seahawks win over the Chargers raises the Broncos’ playoff chance to 71%. A Chargers win leaves it at 70%. A Bills win over the Patriots raises the Broncos’ playoff chance to 71%. A Patriots win leaves it at 70%.
- What are the Broncos’ playoff chances?
- 70% to make the playoffs and 33% to win the AFC West, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Broncos games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET