Who Should Buccaneers Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 22% · NFC South chance 19%
Besides a Buccaneers win, root for the Lions over the Panthers and the Falcons over the Saints.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, with a 22% chance to make the playoffs and a 19% chance to win the NFC South. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Buccaneers win over the Packers raises their playoff chance to 26%. A loss drops it to 16%.
- A Lions win over the Panthers leaves the Buccaneers’ playoff chance at 22%. A Panthers win drops it to 21%.
- A Falcons win over the Saints raises the Buccaneers’ playoff chance to 23%. A Saints win drops it to 21%.
Buccaneers Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | High | 16% → 26% | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Lions | Low | 21% → 22% | A Lions win lowers Carolina’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Falcons at Saints | Falcons | Low | 21% → 23% | A Falcons win lowers New Orleans’s playoff chance by 20 points. |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Buccaneers Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Buccaneers Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Buccaneers’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Buccaneers Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Buccaneers fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Buccaneers win, root for the Lions over the Panthers and the Falcons over the Saints. A Buccaneers win over the Packers raises their playoff chance to 26%. A loss drops it to 16%. A Lions win over the Panthers leaves the Buccaneers’ playoff chance at 22%. A Panthers win drops it to 21%. A Falcons win over the Saints raises the Buccaneers’ playoff chance to 23%. A Saints win drops it to 21%.
- What are the Buccaneers’ playoff chances?
- 22% to make the playoffs and 19% to win the NFC South, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Buccaneers games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET