Who Should Bears Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 54% · NFC North chance 16%
Besides a Bears win, root for the Dolphins over the Vikings and the Chargers over the Seahawks.
The Bears are 2-1, with a 54% chance to make the playoffs and a 16% chance to win the NFC North. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Bears win over the Jets raises their playoff chance to 57%. A loss drops it to 43%.
- A Dolphins win over the Vikings raises the Bears’ playoff chance to 55%. A Vikings win drops it to 53%.
- A Chargers win over the Seahawks raises the Bears’ playoff chance to 55%. A Seahawks win drops it to 53%.
Bears Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets at Bears | Bears | High | 43% → 57% | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Dolphins | Low | 53% → 55% | A Dolphins win lowers Minnesota’s playoff chance by 10 points. |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Chargers | Low | 53% → 55% | A Chargers win lowers Seattle’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Cowboys at Texans | Texans | Low | 53% → 54% | A Texans win lowers Dallas’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Broncos at 49ers | Broncos | Low | 53% → 54% | A Broncos win lowers San Francisco’s playoff chance by 10 points. |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Low | 53% → 54% | A Buccaneers win lowers Green Bay’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Lions at Panthers | Panthers | Low | 53% → 54% | A Panthers win lowers Detroit’s playoff chance by 13 points. |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Bears Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Bears Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Bears’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Bears Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Bears fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Bears win, root for the Dolphins over the Vikings and the Chargers over the Seahawks. A Bears win over the Jets raises their playoff chance to 57%. A loss drops it to 43%. A Dolphins win over the Vikings raises the Bears’ playoff chance to 55%. A Vikings win drops it to 53%. A Chargers win over the Seahawks raises the Bears’ playoff chance to 55%. A Seahawks win drops it to 53%.
- What are the Bears’ playoff chances?
- 54% to make the playoffs and 16% to win the NFC North, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Bears games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET