Who Should Raiders Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 37% · AFC West chance 12%
Besides a Raiders win, root for the 49ers over the Broncos and the Titans over the Ravens.
The Raiders are 3-0, with a 37% chance to make the playoffs and a 12% chance to win the AFC West. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Raiders win over the Chiefs raises their playoff chance to 48%. A loss drops it to 29%.
- A 49ers win over the Broncos raises the Raiders’ playoff chance to 38%. A Broncos win drops it to 36%.
- A Titans win over the Ravens raises the Raiders’ playoff chance to 38%. A Ravens win leaves it at 37%.
Raiders Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs at Raiders | Raiders | High | 29% → 48% | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | 49ers | Low | 36% → 38% | A 49ers win lowers Denver’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Titans at Ravens | Titans | Low | 37% → 38% | A Titans win lowers Baltimore’s playoff chance by 14 points. |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Raiders Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Raiders Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Raiders’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Raiders Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Raiders fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Raiders win, root for the 49ers over the Broncos and the Titans over the Ravens. A Raiders win over the Chiefs raises their playoff chance to 48%. A loss drops it to 29%. A 49ers win over the Broncos raises the Raiders’ playoff chance to 38%. A Broncos win drops it to 36%. A Titans win over the Ravens raises the Raiders’ playoff chance to 38%. A Ravens win leaves it at 37%.
- What are the Raiders’ playoff chances?
- 37% to make the playoffs and 12% to win the AFC West, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Raiders games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET