Who Should Jaguars Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 64% · AFC South chance 53%
Besides a Jaguars win, root for the Cowboys over the Texans and the Commanders over the Colts.
The Jaguars are 2-1, with a 64% chance to make the playoffs and a 53% chance to win the AFC South. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Jaguars win over the Bengals raises their playoff chance to 73%. A loss drops it to 58%.
- A Cowboys win over the Texans raises the Jaguars’ playoff chance to 65%. A Texans win drops it to 63%.
- A Commanders win over the Colts raises the Jaguars’ playoff chance to 65%. A Colts win drops it to 63%.
Jaguars Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars at Bengals | Jaguars | High | 58% → 73% | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Cowboys | Low | 63% → 65% | A Cowboys win lowers Houston’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Colts at Commanders | Commanders | Low | 63% → 65% | A Commanders win lowers Indianapolis’s playoff chance by 12 points. |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Falcons at Saints | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Jaguars Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Jaguars Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Jaguars’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Jaguars Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Jaguars fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Jaguars win, root for the Cowboys over the Texans and the Commanders over the Colts. A Jaguars win over the Bengals raises their playoff chance to 73%. A loss drops it to 58%. A Cowboys win over the Texans raises the Jaguars’ playoff chance to 65%. A Texans win drops it to 63%. A Commanders win over the Colts raises the Jaguars’ playoff chance to 65%. A Colts win drops it to 63%.
- What are the Jaguars’ playoff chances?
- 64% to make the playoffs and 53% to win the AFC South, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Jaguars games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET