Who Should Saints Fans Root For in Week 4?
Playoff chance 47% · NFC South chance 43%
Besides a Saints win, root for the Packers over the Buccaneers and the Lions over the Panthers.
The Saints are 1-2, with a 47% chance to make the playoffs and a 43% chance to win the NFC South. Most games this week barely change their chances. These three matter most:
- A Saints win over the Falcons raises their playoff chance to 55%. A loss drops it to 34%.
- A Packers win over the Buccaneers raises the Saints’ playoff chance to 49%. A Buccaneers win drops it to 46%.
- A Lions win over the Panthers raises the Saints’ playoff chance to 48%. A Panthers win drops it to 45%.
Saints Week 4 Rooting Guide: Playoff Chance by Game
| Gamethis week | Root forthe result that helps | Impactsize of the swing | Changeplayoff chance | Whythe rival it hurts most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Saints | Saints | High | 34% → 55% | — |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers | Medium | 46% → 49% | A Packers win lowers Tampa Bay’s playoff chance by 10 points. |
| Lions at Panthers | Lions | Medium | 45% → 48% | A Lions win lowers Carolina’s playoff chance by 11 points. |
| Jets at Bears | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Broncos at 49ers | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Cowboys at Texans | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Rams at Eagles | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Colts at Commanders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Titans at Ravens | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Patriots at Bills | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Either | Either | Under 1 point | — |
Saints Week 4 Games Already Played: Result and Effect
How Saints Week 4 Chances Are Calculated: 10,000 Seasons
MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings, using its team ratings for every game still to play. Each simulated season also varies every team’s rating to allow for uncertainty in team strength. For each game this week it does that twice, once with each team winning, and keeps every other result the same, so the only difference is that game. The change in the Saints’ chances between the two is the game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either. Playoff spots and division titles follow the league’s tiebreaker procedure; ties are not played out, and a tie that comes down to a coin toss is split between the tied teams. In a backtest of this simulator on 11,776 team-weeks from 2003 to 2025, teams given under a 1% chance made the playoffs 0 times in 1,671.
Saints Playoff Chances in Week 4: Questions
- Who should Saints fans root for in Week 4?
- Besides a Saints win, root for the Packers over the Buccaneers and the Lions over the Panthers. A Saints win over the Falcons raises their playoff chance to 55%. A loss drops it to 34%. A Packers win over the Buccaneers raises the Saints’ playoff chance to 49%. A Buccaneers win drops it to 46%. A Lions win over the Panthers raises the Saints’ playoff chance to 48%. A Panthers win drops it to 45%.
- What are the Saints’ playoff chances?
- 47% to make the playoffs and 43% to win the NFC South, before this week’s remaining games. MockSlate plays out the rest of the 2026 season 10,000 times from the current standings.
- How does the NFL Rooting Guide work?
- For each game this week, MockSlate plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times with the home team winning and 10,000 times with the away team winning, keeping every other result the same. The difference in a team’s chances is that game’s impact. A change under 1 point shows as Either.
Which Saints games can still be flexed →
All 32 teams’ rooting guides →
Updated: October 2, 2026 at 5:06 AM ET