Splash Survivor 2026 Map

This map is built for Splash Survivor's format: two picks in Week 9 and Weeks 12 through 16, one pick everywhere else. The six double weeks carry an X2 badge and accept two picks in their column. Cells show the opponent, our model spread, and the win chance. In a double week, Future Value uses the joint chance of two picks.

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2026 survivor map (splash), 32 teams by 18 pick columns: opponent, model spread, win probability
																			Best Wk
ARI	@LAC+11.5 · 16%	SEA+8 · 24%	@SF+11.5 · 16%	@NYG+7.5 · 25%	DET+8 · 24%	@LAR+14.5 · 11%	DEN+7 · 27%	@DAL+11 · 17%	@SEA+12.5 · 15%	LAR+10 · 19%	@KC+11 · 17%	WAS+2.5 · 41%	PHI+7 · 26%	Bye	NYJ−0.5 · 52%	@NO+8.5 · 23%	LV+0.5 · 48%	SF+7 · 27%	W15	0
ATL	@PIT+4.5 · 35%	CAR−2 · 57%	@GB+6 · 29%	@NO+4 · 36%	BAL+3 · 40%	CHI+2 · 44%	SF+2.5 · 41%	@TB+5 · 33%	CIN+5 · 33%	KC+2.5 · 42%	Bye	@MIN+4 · 35%	DET+3.5 · 37%	@CLEPK · 50%	@WAS+2.5 · 42%	TB+0.5 · 48%	NO−0.5 · 52%	@CAR+2.5 · 42%	W2	9
BAL	@IND−1 · 53%	NO−5.5 · 69%	@DAL−1 · 53%	TEN−8.5 · 78%	@ATL−3 · 60%	@CLE−5 · 67%	CIN−1.5 · 55%	@BUF+4 · 37%	JAX−3 · 61%	LAC−2.5 · 60%	@CAR−3 · 60%	@HOU+2 · 43%	Bye	TB−5.5 · 69%	@PIT−1 · 53%	CLE−9.5 · 79%	@CIN+2 · 43%	PIT−5 · 68%	W16	141
BUF	@HOU+1.5 · 45%	DET−2 · 58%	LAC−3.5 · 62%	NE−3.5 · 63%	@LAR+4 · 36%	@LV−5.5 · 68%	Bye	BAL−4 · 63%	@MIN−0.5 · 52%	@NYJ−5.5 · 68%	MIA−12.5 · 86%	KC−3.5 · 62%	@NE+1 · 47%	@GB+0.5 · 48%	CHI−4 · 64%	@DEN+1 · 46%	@MIA−8 · 76%	NYJ−9.5 · 80%	W11	176
CAR	CHI+1.5 · 44%	@ATL+2 · 43%	@CLEPK · 50%	DET+3.5 · 38%	Bye	@PHI+6 · 30%	TB+0.5 · 49%	@GB+6 · 30%	DEN+2.5 · 42%	@NO+4 · 37%	BAL+3 · 40%	@TB+5 · 34%	@MIN+5 · 32%	NO−0.5 · 52%	CIN+2.5 · 41%	@PIT+4 · 36%	SEA+3 · 39%	ATL−2.5 · 58%	W18	8
CHI	@CAR−1.5 · 56%	MIN−3 · 61%	PHI−1 · 54%	NYJ−8 · 76%	@GB+2 · 42%	@ATL−2 · 56%	NE−2 · 57%	@SEA+4 · 37%	TB−3.5 · 62%	Bye	NO−5.5 · 69%	@DET+4 · 36%	JAX−2 · 57%	@MIA−6.5 · 71%	@BUF+4 · 36%	GB−2 · 58%	DET−0.5 · 52%	@MIN+1 · 46%	W4	90
CIN	TB−4.5 · 65%	@HOU+2.5 · 42%	@PIT−0.5 · 52%	JAX−3 · 60%	@MIA−7 · 73%	Bye	@BAL+1.5 · 45%	TEN−8.5 · 77%	@ATL−5 · 67%	PIT−4 · 64%	@WAS−2.5 · 59%	NO−5 · 68%	@CLE−4.5 · 66%	KC−2.5 · 59%	@CAR−2.5 · 59%	@IND−0.5 · 52%	BAL−2 · 57%	CLE−9 · 79%	W18	149
CLE	@JAX+8.5 · 23%	@TB+7 · 27%	CARPK · 50%	PIT+2 · 43%	@NYJ+2.5 · 41%	BAL+5 · 33%	@TEN+3 · 39%	@PIT+6.5 · 29%	@NO+7 · 27%	HOU+5 · 33%	Bye	LV−3 · 60%	CIN+4.5 · 34%	ATLPK · 50%	@NYG+5 · 32%	@BAL+9.5 · 21%	IND+2 · 43%	@CIN+9 · 21%	W12	0
DAL	@NYG−1 · 54%	WAS−6.5 · 71%	BAL+1 · 47%	@HOU+3 · 40%	TB−4 · 63%	@GB+2 · 43%	@PHI+3 · 40%	ARI−11 · 83%	@INDPK · 50%	SF−2 · 57%	TEN−8 · 75%	PHI−1.5 · 56%	@SEA+3.5 · 38%	Bye	@LAR+4.5 · 34%	JAX−2.5 · 58%	NYG−5.5 · 69%	@WAS−2 · 57%	W8	129
DEN	@KC+2 · 43%	JAX−2.5 · 60%	LAR+1 · 47%	@SF+2 · 42%	@LAC+2 · 42%	SEA−1 · 54%	@ARI−7 · 73%	KC−2.5 · 58%	@CAR−2.5 · 58%	Bye	LV−9.5 · 80%	@PIT−0.5 · 51%	MIA−11.5 · 84%	@NYJ−3 · 61%	@LV−4 · 65%	BUF−1 · 54%	@NE+2 · 43%	LAC−2 · 58%	W13	98
DET	NO−6 · 71%	@BUF+2 · 42%	NYJ−9.5 · 80%	@CAR−3.5 · 62%	@ARI−8 · 76%	Bye	GB−5 · 67%	MIN−5 · 67%	@MIA−8 · 76%	NE−1.5 · 55%	TB−4 · 65%	CHI−4 · 64%	@ATL−3.5 · 63%	TEN−9 · 79%	@MIN−0.5 · 52%	NYG−7 · 73%	@CHI+0.5 · 48%	@GB+0.5 · 48%	W3	177
GB	@MIN+1 · 46%	@NYJ−3.5 · 63%	ATL−6 · 71%	@TB+1 · 47%	CHI−2 · 58%	DAL−2 · 57%	@DET+5 · 33%	CAR−6 · 70%	@NE+2.5 · 41%	MIN−3 · 61%	Bye	@LAR+6 · 30%	@NOPK · 50%	BUF−0.5 · 52%	MIA−10.5 · 82%	@CHI+2 · 42%	HOU−1 · 54%	DET−0.5 · 52%	W15	92
HOU	BUF−1.5 · 55%	CIN−2.5 · 58%	@IND−0.5 · 52%	DAL−3 · 60%	@TEN−4 · 64%	@JAX−1 · 53%	NYG−6 · 71%	Bye	@LAC+1 · 47%	@CLE−5 · 67%	IND−5 · 68%	BAL−2 · 57%	@PIT−0.5 · 52%	@WAS−2.5 · 59%	JAX−3 · 61%	@PHI+2 · 42%	@GB+1 · 46%	TEN−8.5 · 77%	W18	125
IND	BAL+1 · 47%	@KC+4.5 · 34%	HOU+0.5 · 48%	@WAS−2 · 57%	@PIT+2 · 42%	TEN−5.5 · 69%	@MIN+4 · 35%	@JAX+5.5 · 32%	DALPK · 50%	MIA−9 · 78%	@HOU+5 · 32%	NYG−3.5 · 62%	Bye	@PHI+4 · 36%	@TEN−1 · 54%	CIN+0.5 · 48%	@CLE−2 · 57%	JAXPK · 50%	W10	61
JAX	CLE−8.5 · 77%	@DEN+2.5 · 40%	NE−2 · 57%	@CIN+3 · 40%	PHI+1 · 47%	HOU+1 · 47%	Bye	IND−5.5 · 68%	@BAL+3 · 39%	@TEN−2 · 58%	@NYG−1 · 54%	TEN−7.5 · 75%	@CHI+2 · 43%	PIT−4.5 · 65%	@HOU+3 · 39%	@DAL+2.5 · 42%	WAS−6 · 71%	@INDPK · 50%	W1	89
KC	DEN−2 · 57%	IND−4.5 · 66%	@MIA−7 · 73%	@LV−4 · 64%	Bye	LAC−3 · 61%	@SEA+3.5 · 38%	@DEN+2.5 · 42%	NYJ−8.5 · 77%	@ATL−2.5 · 58%	ARI−11 · 83%	@BUF+3.5 · 38%	@LAR+5.5 · 31%	@CIN+2.5 · 41%	NE−2.5 · 58%	SF−2 · 57%	@LAC+2.5 · 42%	LV−8.5 · 77%	W11	154
LAC	ARI−11.5 · 84%	LV−8.5 · 78%	@BUF+3.5 · 38%	@SEA+3 · 39%	DEN−2 · 58%	@KC+3 · 39%	Bye	@LAR+4 · 35%	HOU−1 · 53%	@BAL+2.5 · 40%	NYJ−8.5 · 78%	NE−1.5 · 55%	@TB+0.5 · 49%	@LV−3 · 61%	SF−2 · 58%	@MIA−7 · 73%	KC−2.5 · 58%	@DEN+2 · 42%	W1	114
LAR	SF−3 · 61%	NYG−9 · 78%	@DEN−1 · 53%	@PHI−0.5 · 52%	BUF−4 · 64%	ARI−14.5 · 89%	@LV−7 · 74%	LAC−4 · 65%	@WAS−5.5 · 68%	@ARI−10 · 81%	Bye	GB−6 · 70%	KC−5.5 · 69%	@SF−1 · 53%	DAL−4.5 · 66%	@SEAPK · 50%	@TB−3 · 60%	SEA−4.5 · 65%	W6	215
LV	MIA−5 · 67%	@LAC+8.5 · 22%	@NO+5.5 · 31%	KC+4 · 36%	@NE+8.5 · 23%	BUF+5.5 · 32%	LAR+7 · 26%	@NYJ+2 · 42%	@SF+9.5 · 20%	SEA+5 · 32%	@DEN+9.5 · 20%	@CLE+3 · 40%	Bye	LAC+3 · 39%	DEN+4 · 35%	TEN−1.5 · 56%	@ARI−0.5 · 52%	@KC+8.5 · 23%	W1	19
MIA	@LV+5 · 33%	@SF+11.5 · 16%	KC+7 · 27%	@MIN+9.5 · 20%	CIN+7 · 27%	Bye	@NYJ+4 · 36%	NE+6.5 · 28%	DET+8 · 24%	@IND+9 · 22%	@BUF+12.5 · 14%	NYJ+0.5 · 48%	@DEN+11.5 · 16%	CHI+6.5 · 29%	@GB+10.5 · 18%	LAC+7 · 27%	BUF+8 · 24%	@NE+11 · 17%	W12	0
MIN	GB−1 · 54%	@CHI+3 · 39%	@TB+2 · 43%	MIA−9.5 · 80%	@NO+1 · 47%	Bye	IND−4 · 65%	@DET+5 · 33%	BUF+0.5 · 48%	@GB+3 · 39%	@SF+1.5 · 44%	ATL−4 · 65%	CAR−5 · 68%	@NE+3.5 · 38%	DET+0.5 · 48%	WAS−5 · 68%	@NYJ−2.5 · 59%	CHI−1 · 54%	W4	73
NE	@SEA+3.5 · 38%	PIT−4.5 · 65%	@JAX+2 · 43%	@BUF+3.5 · 37%	LV−8.5 · 77%	NYJ−8.5 · 77%	@CHI+2 · 43%	@MIA−6.5 · 72%	GB−2.5 · 59%	@DET+1.5 · 45%	Bye	@LAC+1.5 · 45%	BUF−1 · 53%	MIN−3.5 · 62%	@KC+2.5 · 42%	@NYJ−4 · 64%	DEN−2 · 57%	MIA−11 · 83%	W18	132
NO	@DET+6 · 29%	@BAL+5.5 · 31%	LV−5.5 · 69%	ATL−4 · 64%	MIN−1 · 53%	@NYG+1.5 · 45%	PIT+0.5 · 49%	Bye	CLE−7 · 73%	CAR−4 · 63%	@CHI+5.5 · 31%	@CIN+5 · 32%	GBPK · 50%	@CAR+0.5 · 48%	@TB+3 · 39%	ARI−8.5 · 77%	@ATL+0.5 · 48%	TB−1 · 54%	W16	76
NYG	DAL+1 · 46%	@LAR+9 · 22%	TEN−4.5 · 65%	ARI−7.5 · 75%	@WAS+1.5 · 45%	NO−1.5 · 55%	@HOU+6 · 29%	Bye	@PHI+5 · 32%	WAS−3 · 61%	JAX+1 · 46%	@IND+3.5 · 38%	SF+1.5 · 45%	@SEA+7 · 27%	CLE−5 · 68%	@DET+7 · 27%	@DAL+5.5 · 31%	PHI+2 · 44%	W4	62
NYJ	@TEN+2.5 · 40%	GB+3.5 · 37%	@DET+9.5 · 20%	@CHI+8 · 24%	CLE−2.5 · 59%	@NE+8.5 · 23%	MIA−4 · 64%	LV−2 · 58%	@KC+8.5 · 23%	BUF+5.5 · 32%	@LAC+8.5 · 22%	@MIA−0.5 · 52%	Bye	DEN+3 · 39%	@ARI+0.5 · 48%	NE+4 · 36%	MIN+2.5 · 41%	@BUF+9.5 · 20%	W7	31
PHI	WAS−7 · 73%	@TEN−4 · 64%	@CHI+1 · 46%	LAR+0.5 · 48%	@JAX−1 · 53%	CAR−6 · 70%	DAL−3 · 60%	@WAS−1.5 · 56%	NYG−5 · 68%	Bye	PIT−6 · 71%	@DAL+1.5 · 44%	@ARI−7 · 74%	IND−4 · 64%	SEA−1.5 · 56%	HOU−2 · 58%	@SF+2 · 43%	@NYG−2 · 56%	W13	124
PIT	ATL−4.5 · 65%	@NE+4.5 · 35%	CIN+0.5 · 48%	@CLE−2 · 57%	IND−2 · 58%	@TB+3 · 40%	@NO−0.5 · 51%	CLE−6.5 · 71%	Bye	@CIN+4 · 36%	@PHI+6 · 29%	DEN+0.5 · 49%	HOU+0.5 · 48%	@JAX+4.5 · 35%	BAL+1 · 47%	CAR−4 · 64%	@TEN−1 · 54%	@BAL+5 · 32%	W8	57
SEA	NE−3.5 · 62%	@ARI−8 · 76%	@WAS−3 · 61%	LAC−3 · 61%	SF−3 · 61%	@DEN+1 · 46%	KC−3.5 · 62%	CHI−4 · 63%	ARI−12.5 · 85%	@LV−5 · 68%	Bye	@SFPK · 49%	DAL−3.5 · 62%	NYG−7 · 73%	@PHI+1.5 · 44%	LARPK · 50%	@CAR−3 · 61%	@LAR+4.5 · 35%	W9	153
SF	@LAR+3 · 39%	MIA−11.5 · 84%	ARI−11.5 · 84%	DEN−2 · 58%	@SEA+3 · 39%	WAS−6.5 · 72%	@ATL−2.5 · 59%	Bye	LV−9.5 · 80%	@DAL+2 · 43%	MIN−1.5 · 56%	SEAPK · 51%	@NYG−1.5 · 55%	LAR+1 · 47%	@LAC+2 · 42%	@KC+2 · 43%	PHI−2 · 57%	@ARI−7 · 73%	W2	161
TB	@CIN+4.5 · 35%	CLE−7 · 73%	MIN−2 · 57%	GB−1 · 53%	@DAL+4 · 37%	PIT−3 · 60%	@CAR−0.5 · 51%	ATL−5 · 67%	@CHI+3.5 · 38%	Bye	@DET+4 · 35%	CAR−5 · 66%	LAC−0.5 · 51%	@BAL+5.5 · 31%	NO−3 · 61%	@ATL−0.5 · 52%	LAR+3 · 40%	@NO+1 · 46%	W2	61
TEN	NYJ−2.5 · 60%	PHI+4 · 36%	@NYG+4.5 · 35%	@BAL+8.5 · 22%	HOU+4 · 36%	@IND+5.5 · 31%	CLE−3 · 61%	@CIN+8.5 · 23%	Bye	JAX+2 · 42%	@DAL+8 · 25%	@JAX+7.5 · 25%	WAS−1 · 53%	@DET+9 · 21%	IND+1 · 46%	@LV+1.5 · 44%	PIT+1 · 46%	@HOU+8.5 · 23%	W7	21
WAS	@PHI+7 · 27%	@DAL+6.5 · 29%	SEA+3 · 39%	IND+2 · 43%	NYG−1.5 · 55%	@SF+6.5 · 28%	Bye	PHI+1.5 · 44%	LAR+5.5 · 32%	@NYG+3 · 39%	CIN+2.5 · 41%	@ARI−2.5 · 59%	@TEN+1 · 47%	HOU+2.5 · 41%	ATL−2.5 · 58%	@MIN+5 · 32%	@JAX+6 · 29%	DAL+2 · 43%	W12	5

These are MockSlate model numbers, not sportsbook lines.

MockSlate is not affiliated with Circa Sports or Splash Sports.

Splash Survivor 2026 double-pick weeks explained

In Week 9, Week 12, Week 13, Week 14, Week 15 and Week 16 you submit two teams instead of one, and both have to win. The X2 badge marks those columns, and each accepts two picks. Because both picks must hit, the real chance for the week is the product of the two win chances: two 75% teams together are 56%, not 75%. That is why Future Value on this page uses the joint chance in double weeks, and why the strongest single favorites are worth saving for them.

Best two-team combinations Week 9 Splash Survivor

Week 1 is a single-pick week; the next double week is Week 9. The two highest win chances on that board, from our preseason ratings, are Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals at 85% and San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders at 80%. Together they win 68% of the time. A pair is only as strong as its weaker half, so a 60% second pick drags an 80% first pick down to 48%.

How the $21M Splash Survivor World Championship works

Splash Sports runs its survivor contest as a season-long, single-elimination pool: pick one winner each week, two in the double weeks, and never use a team twice. For 2026 the guarantee is $21 million and the entry is $1,000; entry closed September 13. A loss ends the entry. The double weeks are where fields thin fastest, because two picks must both win. This map models that format only; entry terms, prize pool, and tiebreak rules are published by Splash Sports and can change from season to season.

Splash Survivor Week 9 and Weeks 12–16 double picks

The best pair in each double week by our preseason ratings, before any picks are used:

Week 9: Seattle Seahawks (85%) and San Francisco 49ers (80%), 68% together.
Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars (75%) and Los Angeles Rams (70%), 53% together.
Week 13: Denver Broncos (84%) and Philadelphia Eagles (74%), 62% together.
Week 14: Detroit Lions (79%) and Seattle Seahawks (73%), 58% together.
Week 15: Green Bay Packers (82%) and New York Giants (68%), 56% together.
Week 16: Baltimore Ravens (79%) and New Orleans Saints (77%), 61% together.

Splash Survivor 2026 Map FAQ

Can I use the map for Circa Survivor?

Not this page. The Circa version has the two holiday legs as their own columns: the Circa Survivor 2026 Map.

Does the map handle Splash double-pick weeks?

Yes. Week 9 and Weeks 12 through 16 carry an X2 badge and accept two picks each. Your picks here are kept separately from the Standard and Circa maps.

Are these sportsbook lines?

No. They come from our own ratings. They are model numbers, not betting prices.

Updated: September 5, 2026 · Ratings snapshot: preseason