Circa Survivor 2026 Map

This map is built for Circa Survivor's 20-leg format: the 18 NFL weeks plus a Thanksgiving leg and a Christmas leg. Games in a holiday leg leave their regular week, so every game appears once. Cells show the opponent, our model spread, and the win chance. Future Value counts all 20 legs.

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2026 survivor map (circa), 32 teams by 20 pick columns: opponent, model spread, win probability
																					Best Wk
ARI	@LAC+11.5 · 16%	SEA+8 · 24%	@SF+11.5 · 16%	@NYG+7.5 · 25%	DET+8 · 24%	@LAR+14.5 · 11%	DEN+7 · 27%	@DAL+11 · 17%	@SEA+12.5 · 15%	LAR+10 · 19%	@KC+11 · 17%	Bye	WAS+2.5 · 41%	PHI+7 · 26%	Bye	NYJ−0.5 · 52%	Bye	@NO+8.5 · 23%	LV+0.5 · 48%	SF+7 · 27%	W15	2
ATL	@PIT+4.5 · 35%	CAR−2 · 57%	@GB+6 · 29%	@NO+4 · 36%	BAL+3 · 40%	CHI+2 · 44%	SF+2.5 · 41%	@TB+5 · 33%	CIN+5 · 33%	KC+2.5 · 42%	Bye	Bye	@MIN+4 · 35%	DET+3.5 · 37%	@CLEPK · 50%	@WAS+2.5 · 42%	Bye	TB+0.5 · 48%	NO−0.5 · 52%	@CAR+2.5 · 42%	W2	9
BAL	@IND−1 · 53%	NO−5.5 · 69%	@DAL−1 · 53%	TEN−8.5 · 78%	@ATL−3 · 60%	@CLE−5 · 67%	CIN−1.5 · 55%	@BUF+4 · 37%	JAX−3 · 61%	LAC−2.5 · 60%	@CAR−3 · 60%	Bye	@HOU+2 · 43%	Bye	TB−5.5 · 69%	@PIT−1 · 53%	Bye	CLE−9.5 · 79%	@CIN+2 · 43%	PIT−5 · 68%	W16	185
BUF	@HOU+1.5 · 45%	DET−2 · 58%	LAC−3.5 · 62%	NE−3.5 · 63%	@LAR+4 · 36%	@LV−5.5 · 68%	Bye	BAL−4 · 63%	@MIN−0.5 · 52%	@NYJ−5.5 · 68%	MIA−12.5 · 86%	KC−3.5 · 62%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	@NE+1 · 47%	@GB+0.5 · 48%	CHI−4 · 64%	@DEN+1 · 46%	Game in the Christmas leg	@MIA−8 · 76%	NYJ−9.5 · 80%	W11	202
CAR	CHI+1.5 · 44%	@ATL+2 · 43%	@CLEPK · 50%	DET+3.5 · 38%	Bye	@PHI+6 · 30%	TB+0.5 · 49%	@GB+6 · 30%	DEN+2.5 · 42%	@NO+4 · 37%	BAL+3 · 40%	Bye	@TB+5 · 34%	@MIN+5 · 32%	NO−0.5 · 52%	CIN+2.5 · 41%	Bye	@PIT+4 · 36%	SEA+3 · 39%	ATL−2.5 · 58%	W18	10
CHI	@CAR−1.5 · 56%	MIN−3 · 61%	PHI−1 · 54%	NYJ−8 · 76%	@GB+2 · 42%	@ATL−2 · 56%	NE−2 · 57%	@SEA+4 · 37%	TB−3.5 · 62%	Bye	NO−5.5 · 69%	@DET+4 · 36%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	JAX−2 · 57%	@MIA−6.5 · 71%	@BUF+4 · 36%	GB−2 · 58%	Game in the Christmas leg	DET−0.5 · 52%	@MIN+1 · 46%	W4	129
CIN	TB−4.5 · 65%	@HOU+2.5 · 42%	@PIT−0.5 · 52%	JAX−3 · 60%	@MIA−7 · 73%	Bye	@BAL+1.5 · 45%	TEN−8.5 · 77%	@ATL−5 · 67%	PIT−4 · 64%	@WAS−2.5 · 59%	Bye	NO−5 · 68%	@CLE−4.5 · 66%	KC−2.5 · 59%	@CAR−2.5 · 59%	Bye	@IND−0.5 · 52%	BAL−2 · 57%	CLE−9 · 79%	W18	207
CLE	@JAX+8.5 · 23%	@TB+7 · 27%	CARPK · 50%	PIT+2 · 43%	@NYJ+2.5 · 41%	BAL+5 · 33%	@TEN+3 · 39%	@PIT+6.5 · 29%	@NO+7 · 27%	HOU+5 · 33%	Bye	Bye	LV−3 · 60%	CIN+4.5 · 34%	ATLPK · 50%	@NYG+5 · 32%	Bye	@BAL+9.5 · 21%	IND+2 · 43%	@CIN+9 · 21%	W12	10
DAL	@NYG−1 · 54%	WAS−6.5 · 71%	BAL+1 · 47%	@HOU+3 · 40%	TB−4 · 63%	@GB+2 · 43%	@PHI+3 · 40%	ARI−11 · 83%	@INDPK · 50%	SF−2 · 57%	TEN−8 · 75%	PHI−1.5 · 56%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	@SEA+3.5 · 38%	Bye	@LAR+4.5 · 34%	Bye	JAX−2.5 · 58%	NYG−5.5 · 69%	@WAS−2 · 57%	W8	143
DEN	@KC+2 · 43%	JAX−2.5 · 60%	LAR+1 · 47%	@SF+2 · 42%	@LAC+2 · 42%	SEA−1 · 54%	@ARI−7 · 73%	KC−2.5 · 58%	@CAR−2.5 · 58%	Bye	LV−9.5 · 80%	@PIT−0.5 · 51%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	MIA−11.5 · 84%	@NYJ−3 · 61%	@LV−4 · 65%	BUF−1 · 54%	Game in the Christmas leg	@NE+2 · 43%	LAC−2 · 58%	W13	156
DET	NO−6 · 71%	@BUF+2 · 42%	NYJ−9.5 · 80%	@CAR−3.5 · 62%	@ARI−8 · 76%	Bye	GB−5 · 67%	MIN−5 · 67%	@MIA−8 · 76%	NE−1.5 · 55%	TB−4 · 65%	CHI−4 · 64%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	@ATL−3.5 · 63%	TEN−9 · 79%	@MIN−0.5 · 52%	Bye	NYG−7 · 73%	@CHI+0.5 · 48%	@GB+0.5 · 48%	W3	250
GB	@MIN+1 · 46%	@NYJ−3.5 · 63%	ATL−6 · 71%	@TB+1 · 47%	CHI−2 · 58%	DAL−2 · 57%	@DET+5 · 33%	CAR−6 · 70%	@NE+2.5 · 41%	MIN−3 · 61%	Bye	@LAR+6 · 30%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	@NOPK · 50%	BUF−0.5 · 52%	MIA−10.5 · 82%	@CHI+2 · 42%	Game in the Christmas leg	HOU−1 · 54%	DET−0.5 · 52%	W15	120
HOU	BUF−1.5 · 55%	CIN−2.5 · 58%	@IND−0.5 · 52%	DAL−3 · 60%	@TEN−4 · 64%	@JAX−1 · 53%	NYG−6 · 71%	Bye	@LAC+1 · 47%	@CLE−5 · 67%	IND−5 · 68%	Bye	BAL−2 · 57%	@PIT−0.5 · 52%	@WAS−2.5 · 59%	JAX−3 · 61%	@PHI+2 · 42%	Game in the Christmas leg	@GB+1 · 46%	TEN−8.5 · 77%	W18	154
IND	BAL+1 · 47%	@KC+4.5 · 34%	HOU+0.5 · 48%	@WAS−2 · 57%	@PIT+2 · 42%	TEN−5.5 · 69%	@MIN+4 · 35%	@JAX+5.5 · 32%	DALPK · 50%	MIA−9 · 78%	@HOU+5 · 32%	Bye	NYG−3.5 · 62%	Bye	@PHI+4 · 36%	@TEN−1 · 54%	Bye	CIN+0.5 · 48%	@CLE−2 · 57%	JAXPK · 50%	W10	77
JAX	CLE−8.5 · 77%	@DEN+2.5 · 40%	NE−2 · 57%	@CIN+3 · 40%	PHI+1 · 47%	HOU+1 · 47%	Bye	IND−5.5 · 68%	@BAL+3 · 39%	@TEN−2 · 58%	@NYG−1 · 54%	Bye	TEN−7.5 · 75%	@CHI+2 · 43%	PIT−4.5 · 65%	@HOU+3 · 39%	Bye	@DAL+2.5 · 42%	WAS−6 · 71%	@INDPK · 50%	W1	125
KC	DEN−2 · 57%	IND−4.5 · 66%	@MIA−7 · 73%	@LV−4 · 64%	Bye	LAC−3 · 61%	@SEA+3.5 · 38%	@DEN+2.5 · 42%	NYJ−8.5 · 77%	@ATL−2.5 · 58%	ARI−11 · 83%	@BUF+3.5 · 38%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	@LAR+5.5 · 31%	@CIN+2.5 · 41%	NE−2.5 · 58%	Bye	SF−2 · 57%	@LAC+2.5 · 42%	LV−8.5 · 77%	W11	181
LAC	ARI−11.5 · 84%	LV−8.5 · 78%	@BUF+3.5 · 38%	@SEA+3 · 39%	DEN−2 · 58%	@KC+3 · 39%	Bye	@LAR+4 · 35%	HOU−1 · 53%	@BAL+2.5 · 40%	NYJ−8.5 · 78%	Bye	NE−1.5 · 55%	@TB+0.5 · 49%	@LV−3 · 61%	SF−2 · 58%	Bye	@MIA−7 · 73%	KC−2.5 · 58%	@DEN+2 · 42%	W1	156
LAR	SF−3 · 61%	NYG−9 · 78%	@DEN−1 · 53%	@PHI−0.5 · 52%	BUF−4 · 64%	ARI−14.5 · 89%	@LV−7 · 74%	LAC−4 · 65%	@WAS−5.5 · 68%	@ARI−10 · 81%	Bye	GB−6 · 70%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	KC−5.5 · 69%	@SF−1 · 53%	DAL−4.5 · 66%	@SEAPK · 50%	Game in the Christmas leg	@TB−3 · 60%	SEA−4.5 · 65%	W6	268
LV	MIA−5 · 67%	@LAC+8.5 · 22%	@NO+5.5 · 31%	KC+4 · 36%	@NE+8.5 · 23%	BUF+5.5 · 32%	LAR+7 · 26%	@NYJ+2 · 42%	@SF+9.5 · 20%	SEA+5 · 32%	@DEN+9.5 · 20%	Bye	@CLE+3 · 40%	Bye	LAC+3 · 39%	DEN+4 · 35%	Bye	TEN−1.5 · 56%	@ARI−0.5 · 52%	@KC+8.5 · 23%	W1	25
MIA	@LV+5 · 33%	@SF+11.5 · 16%	KC+7 · 27%	@MIN+9.5 · 20%	CIN+7 · 27%	Bye	@NYJ+4 · 36%	NE+6.5 · 28%	DET+8 · 24%	@IND+9 · 22%	@BUF+12.5 · 14%	Bye	NYJ+0.5 · 48%	@DEN+11.5 · 16%	CHI+6.5 · 29%	@GB+10.5 · 18%	Bye	LAC+7 · 27%	BUF+8 · 24%	@NE+11 · 17%	W12	0
MIN	GB−1 · 54%	@CHI+3 · 39%	@TB+2 · 43%	MIA−9.5 · 80%	@NO+1 · 47%	Bye	IND−4 · 65%	@DET+5 · 33%	BUF+0.5 · 48%	@GB+3 · 39%	@SF+1.5 · 44%	Bye	ATL−4 · 65%	CAR−5 · 68%	@NE+3.5 · 38%	DET+0.5 · 48%	Bye	WAS−5 · 68%	@NYJ−2.5 · 59%	CHI−1 · 54%	W4	113
NE	@SEA+3.5 · 38%	PIT−4.5 · 65%	@JAX+2 · 43%	@BUF+3.5 · 37%	LV−8.5 · 77%	NYJ−8.5 · 77%	@CHI+2 · 43%	@MIA−6.5 · 72%	GB−2.5 · 59%	@DET+1.5 · 45%	Bye	Bye	@LAC+1.5 · 45%	BUF−1 · 53%	MIN−3.5 · 62%	@KC+2.5 · 42%	Bye	@NYJ−4 · 64%	DEN−2 · 57%	MIA−11 · 83%	W18	169
NO	@DET+6 · 29%	@BAL+5.5 · 31%	LV−5.5 · 69%	ATL−4 · 64%	MIN−1 · 53%	@NYG+1.5 · 45%	PIT+0.5 · 49%	Bye	CLE−7 · 73%	CAR−4 · 63%	@CHI+5.5 · 31%	Bye	@CIN+5 · 32%	GBPK · 50%	@CAR+0.5 · 48%	@TB+3 · 39%	Bye	ARI−8.5 · 77%	@ATL+0.5 · 48%	TB−1 · 54%	W16	103
NYG	DAL+1 · 46%	@LAR+9 · 22%	TEN−4.5 · 65%	ARI−7.5 · 75%	@WAS+1.5 · 45%	NO−1.5 · 55%	@HOU+6 · 29%	Bye	@PHI+5 · 32%	WAS−3 · 61%	JAX+1 · 46%	Bye	@IND+3.5 · 38%	SF+1.5 · 45%	@SEA+7 · 27%	CLE−5 · 68%	Bye	@DET+7 · 27%	@DAL+5.5 · 31%	PHI+2 · 44%	W4	74
NYJ	@TEN+2.5 · 40%	GB+3.5 · 37%	@DET+9.5 · 20%	@CHI+8 · 24%	CLE−2.5 · 59%	@NE+8.5 · 23%	MIA−4 · 64%	LV−2 · 58%	@KC+8.5 · 23%	BUF+5.5 · 32%	@LAC+8.5 · 22%	Bye	@MIA−0.5 · 52%	Bye	DEN+3 · 39%	@ARI+0.5 · 48%	Bye	NE+4 · 36%	MIN+2.5 · 41%	@BUF+9.5 · 20%	W7	33
PHI	WAS−7 · 73%	@TEN−4 · 64%	@CHI+1 · 46%	LAR+0.5 · 48%	@JAX−1 · 53%	CAR−6 · 70%	DAL−3 · 60%	@WAS−1.5 · 56%	NYG−5 · 68%	Bye	PIT−6 · 71%	@DAL+1.5 · 44%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	@ARI−7 · 74%	IND−4 · 64%	SEA−1.5 · 56%	HOU−2 · 58%	Game in the Christmas leg	@SF+2 · 43%	@NYG−2 · 56%	W13	173
PIT	ATL−4.5 · 65%	@NE+4.5 · 35%	CIN+0.5 · 48%	@CLE−2 · 57%	IND−2 · 58%	@TB+3 · 40%	@NO−0.5 · 51%	CLE−6.5 · 71%	Bye	@CIN+4 · 36%	@PHI+6 · 29%	DEN+0.5 · 49%	Game in the Thanksgiving leg	HOU+0.5 · 48%	@JAX+4.5 · 35%	BAL+1 · 47%	Bye	CAR−4 · 64%	@TEN−1 · 54%	@BAL+5 · 32%	W8	70
SEA	NE−3.5 · 62%	@ARI−8 · 76%	@WAS−3 · 61%	LAC−3 · 61%	SF−3 · 61%	@DEN+1 · 46%	KC−3.5 · 62%	CHI−4 · 63%	ARI−12.5 · 85%	@LV−5 · 68%	Bye	Bye	@SFPK · 49%	DAL−3.5 · 62%	NYG−7 · 73%	@PHI+1.5 · 44%	LARPK · 50%	Game in the Christmas leg	@CAR−3 · 61%	@LAR+4.5 · 35%	W9	195
SF	@LAR+3 · 39%	MIA−11.5 · 84%	ARI−11.5 · 84%	DEN−2 · 58%	@SEA+3 · 39%	WAS−6.5 · 72%	@ATL−2.5 · 59%	Bye	LV−9.5 · 80%	@DAL+2 · 43%	MIN−1.5 · 56%	Bye	SEAPK · 51%	@NYG−1.5 · 55%	LAR+1 · 47%	@LAC+2 · 42%	Bye	@KC+2 · 43%	PHI−2 · 57%	@ARI−7 · 73%	W2	179
TB	@CIN+4.5 · 35%	CLE−7 · 73%	MIN−2 · 57%	GB−1 · 53%	@DAL+4 · 37%	PIT−3 · 60%	@CAR−0.5 · 51%	ATL−5 · 67%	@CHI+3.5 · 38%	Bye	@DET+4 · 35%	Bye	CAR−5 · 66%	LAC−0.5 · 51%	@BAL+5.5 · 31%	NO−3 · 61%	Bye	@ATL−0.5 · 52%	LAR+3 · 40%	@NO+1 · 46%	W2	91
TEN	NYJ−2.5 · 60%	PHI+4 · 36%	@NYG+4.5 · 35%	@BAL+8.5 · 22%	HOU+4 · 36%	@IND+5.5 · 31%	CLE−3 · 61%	@CIN+8.5 · 23%	Bye	JAX+2 · 42%	@DAL+8 · 25%	Bye	@JAX+7.5 · 25%	WAS−1 · 53%	@DET+9 · 21%	IND+1 · 46%	Bye	@LV+1.5 · 44%	PIT+1 · 46%	@HOU+8.5 · 23%	W7	24
WAS	@PHI+7 · 27%	@DAL+6.5 · 29%	SEA+3 · 39%	IND+2 · 43%	NYG−1.5 · 55%	@SF+6.5 · 28%	Bye	PHI+1.5 · 44%	LAR+5.5 · 32%	@NYG+3 · 39%	CIN+2.5 · 41%	Bye	@ARI−2.5 · 59%	@TEN+1 · 47%	HOU+2.5 · 41%	ATL−2.5 · 58%	Bye	@MIN+5 · 32%	@JAX+6 · 29%	DAL+2 · 43%	W12	22

These are MockSlate model numbers, not sportsbook lines.

MockSlate is not affiliated with Circa Sports or Splash Sports.

Leg dates confirmed from Circa rules, September 5, 2026.

Circa Survivor 2026 Thanksgiving leg picks

The Thanksgiving leg is its own column, TG, made of the 5 games played Wednesday through Friday of Thanksgiving week. Those games leave the Week 12 column, and a team playing in the leg shows “Thanksgiving” in its regular Week 12 cell. Favorites by our preseason ratings:

1. Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers: 70%, model spread −6.
2. Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears: 64%, model spread −4.
3. Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs: 62%, model spread −3.5.
4. Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: 56%, model spread −1.5.
5. Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: 51%, model spread −0.5.

Circa Survivor 2026 Christmas leg picks

The Christmas leg, XM, holds the 4 games played Thursday through Saturday of Christmas week, split out of Week 16. Favorites by our preseason ratings:

1. Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers: 58%, model spread −2.
2. Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans: 58%, model spread −2.
3. Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills: 54%, model spread −1.
4. Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 50%, model spread pick.

How the 20-leg Circa Survivor format changes your path

Twenty legs means twenty teams, so you spend more than half the league by the end. The two holiday legs have only a handful of games each, which makes them the tightest spots on the board: fewer favorites to choose from, and everyone in the contest is choosing from the same short list. Look at the TG and XM columns first and work backward, holding a team that is a clear favorite in one of those legs. Future Value on this page counts all 20 columns; a holiday game counts once, in its leg column, so the total matches the Standard map while the column tells you where the value sits.

Circa Survivor 2026 rules in brief

Twenty legs: the 18 regular-season weeks plus a Thanksgiving leg and a Christmas leg.
One team per leg, and no team can be used twice across the 20.
The holiday legs contain only the games played on those days; those games are not part of the surrounding week’s leg.
The Thanksgiving leg covers Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving Day, and Black Friday; the Christmas leg covers Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Full rules, entry details, and prize structure are on Circa Sports’ site.

Circa Survivor 2026 Map FAQ

Can I use the map for Circa Survivor?

Yes. This page is built for Circa Survivor's 20-leg format: 18 weekly columns plus the Thanksgiving and Christmas legs. Your picks here are kept separately from the Standard and Splash maps.

Does the map handle Splash double-pick weeks?

Not on this page. The Splash version marks the six double weeks and scores two picks together: the Splash Survivor 2026 Map.

Are these sportsbook lines?

No. They come from our own ratings. They are model numbers, not betting prices.

Updated: September 5, 2026 · Ratings snapshot: preseason