Hardest NFL Schedule Stretches 2026
Every team's toughest and easiest run of three, four, or five straight games in 2026, scored by the model win chance of each game from our ratings through Week 6. A game's difficulty is 100 minus its win chance, so home field and rest are already inside the number. Byes inside a window are marked.
Hardest three-game stretch NFL 2026
All 32 teams, hardest first. Switch the window with the control; team names open that team’s page.
The hardest three-game stretch in the league belongs to the Miami Dolphins: Weeks 2 to 4, @SF, KC, @MIN, at an average win chance of 16%.
The easiest belongs to the San Francisco 49ers: Weeks 2 to 4, MIA, ARI, DEN, at 78.3%.
| # | Team | Weeksof the window | Opponentsin order, @ = road | Avg win %model, per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | Weeks 2 to 4 | @SF, KC, @MIN | 16% |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | Weeks 9 to 11 | @SEA, LAR, @KC | 18.7% |
| 3 | Las Vegas Raiders | Weeks 9 to 11 | @SF, SEA, @DEN | 24.7% |
| 4 | New York Jets | Weeks 9 to 11 | @KC, BUF, @LAC | 25.7% |
| 5 | Tennessee Titans | Weeks 8 to 11(includes bye) | @CIN, JAX, @DAL | 27.7% |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | Weeks 9 to 12(includes bye) | CIN, KC, @MIN | 32.3% |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | Weeks 16 to 18 | @MIN, @JAX, DAL | 32.3% |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | Weeks 16 to 18 | @BAL, IND, @CIN | 33.3% |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | Weeks 11 to 13 | @CHI, @CIN, GB | 34.7% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | Weeks 5 to 8(includes bye) | DEN, @KC, @LAR | 35% |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | Weeks 7 to 9 | @MIN, @JAX, DAL | 35.7% |
| 12 | New York Giants | Weeks 12 to 14 | @IND, SF, @SEA | 36.7% |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | Weeks 11 to 13 | BAL, @TB, @MIN | 37.3% |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Weeks 9 to 12(includes bye) | @CHI, @DET, CAR | 40.3% |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Weeks 10 to 12 | @CIN, @PHI, DEN | 41% |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | Weeks 13 to 16(includes bye) | @SEA, @LAR, JAX | 41.7% |
| 17 | Kansas City Chiefs | Weeks 12 to 14 | @BUF, @LAR, @CIN | 41.7% |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | Weeks 8 to 10 | @DET, BUF, @GB | 44.3% |
| 19 | Green Bay Packers | Weeks 9 to 12(includes bye) | @NE, MIN, @LAR | 44.7% |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | Weeks 3 to 5 | @CHI, LAR, @JAX | 45% |
| 21 | Houston Texans | Weeks 15 to 17 | JAX, @PHI, @GB | 46% |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Weeks 2 to 4 | @DEN, NE, @CIN | 46.3% |
| 23 | New England Patriots | Weeks 2 to 4 | PIT, @JAX, @BUF | 47.7% |
| 24 | Chicago Bears | Weeks 15 to 17 | @BUF, GB, DET | 48.3% |
| 25 | Baltimore Ravens | Weeks 7 to 9 | CIN, @BUF, JAX | 49.3% |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | Weeks 3 to 5 | LAR, @SF, @LAC | 49.3% |
| 27 | Seattle Seahawks | Weeks 5 to 7 | SF, @DEN, KC | 49.7% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Rams | Weeks 3 to 5 | @DEN, @PHI, BUF | 50.3% |
| 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | Weeks 2 to 4 | @HOU, @PIT, JAX | 50.7% |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | Weeks 14 to 16 | LAR, @LAC, @KC | 53% |
| 31 | Buffalo Bills | Weeks 12 to 14 | KC, @NE, @GB | 54.3% |
| 32 | Detroit Lions | Weeks 15 to 17 | @MIN, NYG, @CHI | 54.3% |
These are MockSlate model numbers, not sportsbook lines.
Hardest five-game stretch NFL 2026
- 1. Miami Dolphins, Weeks 1 to 5: @LV, @SF, KC, @MIN, CIN, 20% average win chance.
- 2. Arizona Cardinals, Weeks 6 to 10: @LAR, DEN, @DAL, @SEA, LAR, 20.6% average win chance.
- 3. Las Vegas Raiders, Weeks 5 to 9: @NE, BUF, LAR, @NYJ, @SF, 29.4% average win chance.
- 4. Tennessee Titans, Weeks 10 to 14: JAX, @DAL, @JAX, WAS, @DET, 30.6% average win chance.
- 5. New York Jets, Weeks 2 to 6: GB, @DET, @CHI, CLE, @NE, 31% average win chance.
Easiest NFL schedule stretch 2026
- 1. San Francisco 49ers, Weeks 2 to 4: MIA, ARI, DEN, 78.3% average win chance.
- 2. Kansas City Chiefs, Weeks 9 to 11: NYJ, @ATL, ARI, 76.3% average win chance.
- 3. Buffalo Bills, Weeks 10 to 12: @NYJ, MIA, KC, 74.3% average win chance.
- 4. Los Angeles Rams, Weeks 6 to 8: ARI, @LV, LAC, 73.7% average win chance.
- 5. Denver Broncos, Weeks 11 to 13: LV, @PIT, MIA, 73% average win chance.
Easiest three-game run per team, best five shown.
How MockSlate scores schedule difficulty
Each game gets the model win chance the Survivor Map shows for the same matchup: one Elo rating per team, a home edge except at neutral and international sites, and a bye edge for a team that had no game the previous week. Difficulty is 100 minus that number, and a stretch is the average across three, four, or five consecutive games. Games, not weeks, so a window can straddle a bye. This page scores windows only; a full-season schedule strength is a different measure and does not live here. See every game’s win chance on the Survivor Map →
Updated: October 26, 2026 · Ratings snapshot: Week 6