NFL Remaining Strength of Schedule 2026

NFL remaining strength of schedule Week 7 2026

Click any column to sort. Team names open that team’s hardest stretch.

Ratings and win chances are MockSlate model numbers from the Week 6 snapshot, not sportsbook lines. Records are from final scores only.

Hardest remaining NFL schedule 2026 by opponent record

Minnesota Vikings lead by opponent record: remaining opponents at 41-30-1 (.576) with 11 games left. Ties count as half a win, and every opponent’s full current record counts, not only its record against the team.

Hardest remaining NFL schedule 2026 by model rating

Miami Dolphins face the highest-rated remaining opponents: an average Elo of 1540, with the model favoring them in 0 of 11 remaining games. Every team starts at 1500 and the ratings move with results, so this measure does not depend on how many games anyone has played.

Where record and rating disagree, Week 7

Harder than record shows: New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Easier than record shows: New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, and New Orleans Saints. For each, the record rank and the rating rank differ by 8 or more places. Those are the schedules where the two measures tell different stories, usually because an opponent’s record has run ahead of or behind its rating.

How MockSlate measures strength of schedule

Opponent record is the combined win-loss-tie record of a team’s remaining opponents from final scores, shown as a win percentage with ties counting half. It is the number most sites publish. Model rating is the average MockSlate Elo of those same opponents from the current snapshot, next to the count of remaining games where the model gives the team better than a 50% chance, home field and rest included. Records lie early in a season; ratings do not. The two measures stay separate. The same remaining schedules and win chances drive the Draft Order Tracker, which turns them into projected wins and a projected 2027 pick order. A blended score cannot be explained in one sentence, so there is none.

Strength of schedule FAQ

Who has the hardest remaining NFL schedule after Week 6?

Minnesota Vikings have the hardest remaining schedule by opponent record: remaining opponents at 41-30-1 (.576). By model rating, Miami Dolphins have the hardest remaining slate, with an average opponent Elo of 1540, favored in 0 of 11.

How is NFL strength of schedule calculated?

The common method adds up the current records of a team's opponents and reports the combined win percentage, with ties counting half. MockSlate shows that number for the games still to be played and for the games already played. It also shows a second measure that does not depend on records: the average MockSlate rating of the remaining opponents, and how many of those games the model favors the team in, with home field and rest included. The two are printed next to each other and never combined into one score.

Why do strength of schedule rankings differ between sites?

Because sites measure different things. Some use opponents' records from last season, some use current records, some use a power rating or a betting market, and some blend several of those into one number. Each choice ranks teams differently, and a blended number cannot be traced back to a single definition. MockSlate prints two separate measures with their definitions so the reader can see which one is doing the work.

Does strength of schedule predict wins?

Weakly. Opponent records early in a season are mostly noise, which is why this page also shows a rating-based view, and why the record rank and the rating rank are marked when they disagree. A hard remaining schedule lowers a team's expected wins, but the size of the effect depends on the gap between the teams, and MockSlate has not measured that gap here. Treat the table as a description of the schedule, not a forecast.

What do "Harder than record shows" and "Easier than record shows" mean?

Harder/Easier than record shows: opponents' win-loss records and our Elo model rank this schedule far apart. Early in the season, records come from only a few games, so the Elo rank is usually more stable. A team gets one of the two marks from Week 4 on, when its rank by opponent record and its rank by opponent rating differ by 8 or more places.